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  • Writer's pictureRob Schmansky

Third Quarter 2017

If you’ve taken our past advice about ignoring the onslaught of breaking market news, you probably didn’t read Russell Investments’ recent “2017 Global Market Outlook Q4 Update.”

We’re not prone to pore over these relatively unremarkable analyses ourselves, but we do scan a representative sampling of them as part of our due diligence. That’s how we came across this intriguing statement in Russell Investments’ wrap-up:

“Our main message for the close of 2017 isn’t much different from our opening one: we maintain our ‘buy the dips and sell the rallies’ mantra.”

Great idea, but a little weak on practical application. It’s akin to suggesting that lottery players can score big ... as long as they consistently pick the winning numbers!

Immediately following Russell Investments’ mantra, you’ll find this disclosure:

“These views are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions and are current as of the date at the top of the page.”

A client recently shared another 'less than helpful' magazine article that interviewed expert mutual fund managers and economists who all believe the markets are set for a major decline.

The article praised one of the managers as being the only large-cap stock manager to have a positive return in 2008. While he managed to not lose money in 2008 (though his fund's return was below 1%), he has trailed the S&P by a large major since, and averaged about what savings interest may have paid.

Other 'doom and gloom' experts have legitimate points, and a few I find worthwhile to listen to, however, the magazine's quotes from these experts seemed to stop halfway. As someone who occasionally has quotes massaged to fit a narrative, one expert in particular does believe there will be a major correction in the future, but the article failed to print his recommendation is just the same as ours; diversify, take intelligent risks, and make sure your plan is appropriate.

In all seriousness, we feel these sorts of articles and reports speak inadvertent volumes about the evidence-based mantra to which we adhere. By depending on practical evidence instead of fanciful forecasts, our views are rarely subject to change – especially not in hurried reaction to current market conditions.

Instead, we continue to believe the best way to manage your personal wealth is to:

  • Buy, sell and rebalance your portfolio according to your own carefully crafted plans.

  • Focus on an efficient, evidence-based approach to capturing the market’s durable returns while managing its related risks.

  • Ignore the market’s daily distractions, especially its fleeting dips and rallies; they’re far more likely to block the view toward your higher goals than to yield big wins through the chase.

This is our mantra, and so it shall remain – regardless of the date at the top of the page.

As you view your own performance data in this context, we remain eager to hear from you. How else can we help you achieve your greatest financial goals?

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